# Plan S end game

“Now that the Plan S comment period is over and the comments made public, we can see that there is a raging debate over whether journals ought to comply or not. So it is time to consider the possible end games, which range from a lot of journals complying, to just a bunch, to almost none. The differences are pretty stark….

Everything depends on how many journals choose to comply, which in turn may well depend on how many articles fall under Plan S. At this point China and India look like the wild cards in the game….

The abstract question for a journal is this: What fraction of submissions has to be precluded by Plan S to make it a good decision to comply? I pointed out early on that if you have an 80% rejection rate that fraction can be large before damage occurs. On the other hand, journals do not want to write off large numbers of authors as unpublishable. It is a hard choice….

The abstract question for a journal is this: What fraction of submissions has to be precluded by Plan S to make it a good decision to comply? I pointed out early on that if you have an 80% rejection rate that fraction can be large before damage occurs. On the other hand, journals do not want to write off large numbers of authors as unpublishable. It is a hard choice.

Assuming that something more than a few journals do make the leap, but many do not, we get a rather strange world in which Plan S authors can only publish in a specific subset of journals. This may be the most likely outcome, but it seems to be little discussed. The impact on the Plan S authors is probably adverse, especially if the top journals choose not to comply….”

# Plan S end game

“Now that the Plan S comment period is over and the comments made public, we can see that there is a raging debate over whether journals ought to comply or not. So it is time to consider the possible end games, which range from a lot of journals complying, to just a bunch, to almost none. The differences are pretty stark….

Everything depends on how many journals choose to comply, which in turn may well depend on how many articles fall under Plan S. At this point China and India look like the wild cards in the game….

The abstract question for a journal is this: What fraction of submissions has to be precluded by Plan S to make it a good decision to comply? I pointed out early on that if you have an 80% rejection rate that fraction can be large before damage occurs. On the other hand, journals do not want to write off large numbers of authors as unpublishable. It is a hard choice….

The abstract question for a journal is this: What fraction of submissions has to be precluded by Plan S to make it a good decision to comply? I pointed out early on that if you have an 80% rejection rate that fraction can be large before damage occurs. On the other hand, journals do not want to write off large numbers of authors as unpublishable. It is a hard choice.

Assuming that something more than a few journals do make the leap, but many do not, we get a rather strange world in which Plan S authors can only publish in a specific subset of journals. This may be the most likely outcome, but it seems to be little discussed. The impact on the Plan S authors is probably adverse, especially if the top journals choose not to comply….”

# ‘Up to half’ of European papers to be open access under Plan S | Times Higher Education (THE)

European countries signed up to Plan S can expect to have about half their total research output published in open access format, according to new analysis that offers a snapshot of the scheme’s potential global impact.

The Plan S Footprint: Implications for the Scholarly Publishing Landscape, published by research data analysts Clarivate, examines the extent to which existing publications comply with the guidelines for Plan S, under which participating funders will require all the research that they had supported to be made freely available at the point of publication from next January….

While the papers funded by Plan S backers account for only about 6.4 per cent of total annual academic output, researchers found their impact to be much wider, with compliant papers racking up more citations on average, across all fields.

In molecular biology and genetics, for example, 2017 papers authored by one or more researchers supported by Plan S signatories received an average of 7.7 citations, compared with the total subject average of 4.7….

The paper estimates that about 90,000 papers funded by Plan S supporters which are currently published in hybrid or subscription journals would need to be “rehoused” if the titles did not flip to full open access.

“The relocation of content to open access titles would represent a 29 per cent overall movement in the volume of well-cited papers in the existing compliant venues,” the researchers add, which “could be disruptive in some subjects, and suitable compliant venues are not always available”. …”

# ‘Up to half’ of European papers to be open access under Plan S | Times Higher Education (THE)

European countries signed up to Plan S can expect to have about half their total research output published in open access format, according to new analysis that offers a snapshot of the scheme’s potential global impact.

The Plan S Footprint: Implications for the Scholarly Publishing Landscape, published by research data analysts Clarivate, examines the extent to which existing publications comply with the guidelines for Plan S, under which participating funders will require all the research that they had supported to be made freely available at the point of publication from next January….

While the papers funded by Plan S backers account for only about 6.4 per cent of total annual academic output, researchers found their impact to be much wider, with compliant papers racking up more citations on average, across all fields.

In molecular biology and genetics, for example, 2017 papers authored by one or more researchers supported by Plan S signatories received an average of 7.7 citations, compared with the total subject average of 4.7….

The paper estimates that about 90,000 papers funded by Plan S supporters which are currently published in hybrid or subscription journals would need to be “rehoused” if the titles did not flip to full open access.

“The relocation of content to open access titles would represent a 29 per cent overall movement in the volume of well-cited papers in the existing compliant venues,” the researchers add, which “could be disruptive in some subjects, and suitable compliant venues are not always available”. …”

# The Plan S footprint: Implications for the scholarly publishing landscape – Clarivate

This report, the second in the Global Research series from the Institute for Scientific Information, examines recent patterns of publications funded by Plan S supporters, exploring potential impacts on funders, subjects, countries, publishers, and journals.

Based on journal data taken from Web of Science Core Collection, the report looks to provide an unbiased and data-driven background analysis to inform the debate around a potentially transformative change in research policy. ‘The Plan S Footprint’ raises several questions for consideration by funders, publishers and institutions when exploring possible ways to implement Plan S….”

# A report about Plan S’s potential effects on journals marks a busy week for the open-access movement | Science | AAAS

The report on Plan S, released 1 March, examines several ways in which the proposal could affect and challenge journals. It comes from Clarivate, the analytics firm that tracks journals in its Web of Science database and assigns them journal impact factors. Clarivate examined 3700 journals that in 2017 published at least six articles acknowledging a Plan S funder; of these, 3200 are not in the Directory of Open Access Journals, a comprehensive listing, and so cannot be compliant with Plan S.

The Clarivate report describes how Plan S may have a significant effect on authors even in countries whose funders don’t sign on: It identified 40,000 articles published in 2017 that involved collaborations between researchers in a European country and those in the rest of the world. At several U.S. universities—including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge and the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena—more than 15% of papers listed Plan S funding. Papers produced with any Plan S funding would be required to publish in a Plan S–compliant journal….

The publisher Springer Nature in London began a pilot project allowing the networking website ResearchGate to post some full-text, freely accessible articles from select Nature-branded journals, including the flagship. The 3-month pilot will upload at least 6000 articles, published after November 2017 in 23 subscription-only journals, to the ResearchGate profiles of the scientists who authored the articles. Berlin-based ResearchGate, which counts 15 million scientists and researchers worldwide as members, has been sued by other publishers for copyright infringement for allowing its users to upload paywalled journal articles to their profiles.

In a 1 March news release, Springer Nature said the pilot will gather feedback from scientists and institutions to allow it to develop new models for providing access to articles; in another statement, ResearchGate said it hopes the experiment will increase collaborations among scientists. “This pilot project represents the first significant experiment with the syndication of publisher content to a content supercontinent,” writes Lisa Janicke Hinchliffe, a librarian at the University of Illinois in Champaign, on The Scholarly Kitchen blog….”

# Putting authors and content centre-stage | Research Information

I imagine that research publishing will diverge. There will be large-scale, open, global, digital solutions for research findings and all supplementary project material that can be accessed through a multitude of tools, probably managed by communities of scholarly associations, funders and government bodies.

Other outputs will be produced by information analytics companies, commercial scholarly and university presses. Books will live on! …

Automated translation, open publishing systems and transformed discoverability mechanisms will democratise scholarly endeavour and bring a diversity of voices, methods and approaches. …”

# Darpa Wants to Solve Science’s Replication Crisis With Robots | WIRED

Researchers are trying to fix the problem. They’re encouraging more sharing of data sets and urging each other to preregister their hypotheses—declaring what they intend to find and how they intend to find it. The idea is to cut down on the statistical shenanigans and memory-holing of negative results that got the field into this mess. No more collecting a giant blob of data and then combing through it for a publishable outcome, a practice known as “HARKing”—hypothesizing after results are known.

And self-appointed teams are even going back through old work, manually, to see what holds up and what doesn’t. That means doing the same experiment again, or trying to expand it to see if the effect generalizes. It’s a slog—boring, expensive, and time-consuming. To the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Pentagon’s mad-science wing, the problem demands an obvious solution: Robots.

A Darpa program called Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence—yes, SCORE—aims to assign a “credibility score” (see what they did there) to research findings in the social and behavioral sciences, a set of related fields to which the reproducibility crisis has been particularly unkind. In 2017, I called the project a bullshit detector for science, somewhat to the project director’s chagrin. Well, now it’s game on: Darpa has promised $7.6 million to the Center for Open Science, a nonprofit organization that’s leading the charge for reproducibility. COS is going to aggregate a database of 30,000 claims from the social sciences. For 3,000 of those claims, the Center will either attempt to replicate them or subject them to a prediction market—asking human beings to essentially bet on whether the claims would replicate or not. (Prediction markets are pretty good at this; in a study of reproducibility in the social sciences last summer, for example, a betting market and a survey of other researchers performed about as well as actual do-overs of the studies.)…” # The research ecosystem is changing rapidly and profoundly, Elsevier/Ipsos MORI study shows | EurekAlert! Science News In 10 years’ time, the academic world will see new funding models, methods of collaboration, and ways of conceptualizing research and measuring its impact – all driven by advances in technology, an empirical study, conducted by information analytics business Elsevier and market research organization Ipsos MORI, showed. Tech advances are also likely to make research practice and publication faster, and more open. Researchers can expect to benefit from greater career flexibility, better feedback on their work and improved reproducibility. These are some of the findings presented in the new report, “Research Futures – drivers and scenarios for the next decade“. The report is the result of a year-long, scenario-planning study, drawing on the opinions of more than 2,000 researchers globally, interviews with more than 50 expert stakeholders around the world (including futurists, publishers, funders and technology experts), and a comprehensive review of published literature. The report lays out three plausible future scenarios showing how the world of research could transform over the next decade. These are [full summaries of each scenario are at the end]: • “Brave open world” – considers the rise of open science; • “Tech titans” – examines the growing influence and dominance of technology and technology companies; and • “Eastern ascendance” – considers a fragmented world in which China plays a key role….” # Global Open Access Book Publishing market 2013-2017 & 2018-2022 [This is a press release for a report priced at$1,995.]

“The Large STM Commercial Publishers Will Be Slow Join the Party…

This report explains the origins of the open access movement, gives a timeline for its development, but most importantly, the author quantifies open access book publishing as a market segment, using the information it gathered through primary and secondary research to develop a financial outlook for open access book publishing with market projections through 2022. This research was conducted in conjunction with a larger study of the overall market for scholarly and professional publishing….”